SOMETCUBA Bulletin

Volume  6  Number 1

January 2000

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THE CHANGE-POINT INSTABILITY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME-SERIES AS ALTERNATIVE TO RANDOMNESS. THE EXAMPLE OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE AVERAGES 1908 - 1995 AT CASABLANCA (CUBA).

Final change-point determination and test of randomness of the derived homogeneous sequences.

For finalizing the change-point determination, for testing the homogeneity of the means of the sequences separating change-points, these sequences are re-arranged in increasing order of rank averages. Groups of sequences having homogeneous rank means are then selected with a trend analysis similar to the preceding one.

After verification of independence and identity of the distribution for each determined new group, if the normal assumption is found to be valid for the original data inside each selected group (Shapiro-Wilk test for normality, 1965), homogeneity of variances and of means may be tested for each group of data with parametric tests. For testing homogeneity of variances and of means, likelihood-ratio tests have then to be used (Mood, 1950). If the underlying distribution of data remains unspecified, rank tests have to be applied (Siegel 1956).

Final groupings are then accepted only if differences between close mean values are found to be significant at the size of the complete series (Sneyers 1975).

Example. The annual averages of the air temperature 1908-1995 at Casablanca (Cuba)


Bulletin author: Alejandro Bezanilla
Copyright © 2000 Cuban Metorogical Society 
Last modified: March 08, 2000
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